What’s the spread on an Obama-Kucinich win?

There are dozens of theories on which Presidential candidate will win and why. I’m sure you may have a pick already in mind. But how many are willing to put their money where their mouth is?

For those that are willing, Intrade.com gives them the opportunity. Think of this as a stock option, but reacting to debates, speeches, fund-raising and actions of the various candidates. Another slight difference is that the top is capped at $10 per share, which equates in a manner to percentages. $10 would be a 100% correct guess, and the more popular the candidate the closer you get to the election the higher the value.

This is no mere slap-dash effort. Intrade has been around since 2001, and is one among several companies providing this service. These political prediction market traders are pretty good too.

“The University of Iowa’s electronic market has correctly called every presidential race since its inception in 1988 and come within one point of guessing the total percentage of votes received by the winner.”

Sound interesting? Wonder who is winning? Don’t want to spend cash, but still want the thrill? Well there are even fake-money markets at TheWSX.com and NewsFutures.com.

But there is one major question. What does it mean when the Presidency of the United States is just a commodity, especially when that commodity is accurately valued?

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